Thursday, June 11, 2009

Cautiously Optimistic About Rasmussen Poll Showing Creigh Deeds With 6 Point Lead

Now it is still relatively early in the race and Creigh's come from behind victory shows that you must keep working until election day, but a Rasmussen poll that was just released has some very good news in regards to Creigh Deeds' campaign. The poll, which was conducted by telephone on Wednesday night, shows Creigh with a six point lead over Bob McDonnell (47% to 41%) with 10% undecided and another 2% claiming they'd support another candidate.

Another interesting aspect of this poll is that Creigh's recent comeback in the polls not only helped him win the Democratic nomination but also helped him in his poll numbers against McDonnell.
These figures on the general election represent a continuation of that comeback by Deeds. In April, Deeds made the weakest showing of the three Democratic candidates in match-ups against McDonnell, trailing him by 15 points, 45% to 30%. But now with one Democratic candidate only in the race, he has solidified support in his own party.
There are two good reasons for why this has happened, and it's likely that a combination of the two explain Creigh's numbers. First, Virginia has been tilting towards Democratic candidates in recent statewide elections. As Creigh's numbers in the Democratic electorate increased it is therefore only reasonable to assume that his numbers in the general electorate would also increase. After all, many people respect Creigh and voted for him because he put forward good ideas and people thought that he could govern in a manner that was truly best for all of Virginia. Independent and moderate Republican voters probably picked up on these things as they saw Creigh surging in the Democratic primary and now might be considering voting for him in the general.

Along the same lines, another explanation for the surge seen in these poll numbers is the fact that some Democrats might have voted for the candidate they believed had the best chance of winning in the general election. As I spoke with people at various events in the weeks leading up to the primary, many activists told me that they believed Creigh had the best chance of defeating McDonnell in the fall. Since a Republican governor could have a devastating impact on the Commonwealth with so many important issues facing Virginia, it was very important for these voters to select a candidate who would help to ensure a Democratic victory in November.

All in all, these numbers are a good sign for Democrats but we must work hard to ensure that we elect Creigh Deeds. With the hard work that I've seen Creigh put in over the years I'm confident that he'll do what it takes, but we must do what we can to help make sure these poll results resemble the outcome in November.

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