Thursday, July 17, 2008

Gerry Connolly Has Thirty Point Lead

After facing a popular opponent in the Democratic Primary, it appears as though Gerry Connolly is beginning the general election on good terms. In a poll of 500 likely voters that was conducted by Lake Research Partners from July 10 - 14, Gerry has more than a thirty point lead in a head to head match up with the Republican candidate Keith Fimian.
Initially, Connolly leads Fimian 52% to 21%. A quarter of voters are undecided, and Independent Green Party candidate Joe Oddo receives 2%.

Notably, even though Connolly has majority support now, he has room to grow his vote. After voters hear a positive profile of both candidates with language they currently use, Connolly leads 54% to 27%. He doubles Fimian's vote share and receives well over majority support.

Finally, after a simulated campaign introducing negative and positive information on both candidates, Connolly wins 58% to 23%, expanding his vote share and stunting Fimian's growth.
A memo from Lake Research Partners does point out that Fimian has the ability to self fund his campaign which could help his cause in the long run. If Gerry is able to keep producing impressive fundrasing numbers and is able to communicate his message to the public, however, the numbers suggest that he should still be able to win in November.

Obviously this is still rather early so the numbers could change. Nonetheless, thirty points is a huge lead and would be extremely difficult to overcome in just a few months. It's also worth noting that the numbers that the Connolly campaign announced at a similar point in the Democratic primary showing a huge lead did prove to be accurate within a few points. In other words, the polling seems to be a good gauge of public opinion and is a really good sign for Gerry.


  1. Connolly has a top pollster who puts her name on the numbers. the pollng is solid-bet the ranch

  2. What a dope; those numbers are meaningless. Connolly has 98 percent name ID so what do you expect? Fimian will have the same by the fall and then I might pay attention to the polls. What I thought was quite revealing is that after the pollster pissed on Fimian and then asked the ballot question again Connolly's numbers only went up 6%. People don't like this guy. They may not end of electing Fimian but you are counting your chickens before they hatch.

  3. looks like this leslie character doesn't really like Connolly. She's probably one of the same people who claimed Gerry's 20 - 25 point lead over Leslie Byrne in the polls were a shame even though they only proved to be off by a point or two. Go talk to NLS, he still seems to be on the Connolly bashing train.